Will the Knee Outlive the Patient? Kaplan-Meier Systematically Overstates the Lifetime Risk of Revision After Total Knee Arthroplasty
Preoperative estimates of lifetime revision risk after total knee arthroplasty (TKA) inform patient counselling and implant selection. These estimates are almost universally derived from Kaplan-Meier survivorship, which treats death as noninformative censoring and therefore estimates the revision incidence that would occur if mortality did not. When competing mortality is substantial, this overestimates the cumulative incidence of revision, and the overestimation scales with age at surgery. Estimates given to younger, fitter patients approximate the true competing-risk incidence, while those given to older patients are systematically inflated.
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